Islamist insurgencies in Africa have three main geographical areas of operation. However, no states are at immediate risk of collapse as happened in Afghanistan. Violent jihadi groups are thriving in Africa and in some cases expanding across borders. Member - Institute for Integrated Transitions However, in many places across Africa, deaths have risen dramatically. The Global Terrorism Index, which measures terrorist incidents around the world, shows that deaths linked to terrorist attacks declined by 59% between 20 - to a total of 13,826 - with most of them connected to countries with jihadi insurrections. Terrorism outside of countries experiencing a jihadi insurgency has declined even more sharply, suggesting that the capacity of many groups to conduct attacks against civilians outside of their areas of day-to-day operations has been seriously curtailed.

Terrorism linked to radical Islamist movements has decreased since 2014 when it had reached a record year, both in terms of number of incidents and deaths. Reflecting on the lessons of Afghanistan for Africa is urgent, as Western nations become extremely reluctant to increase their engagement in fighting these insurgencies after the Afghanistan fiasco. A scenario where a country such as Mali - with its corruption, lack of political cohesion, and weak armed forces - would be overwhelmed by jihadi groups is realistic: it nearly happened in 2013. Twenty years after September 11, they are expending their war of terror in large portions of the continent. It also draws attention to Africa, where jihadi groups have been on the rise.

The very rapid fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban is bringing back the nightmarish thought that global jihadi terrorist groups will again find a haven where they can reorganize and thrive.

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